A Million Dollar Question:When the World will become Normal


    The world is reeling under COVID for 7-8 months except China and we are not far from million mortality due to Corona world wide.

    The question that lingering to everyone from children to adult to senior citizens that when normal activities will begun. The definition of normal activities is different from person to person, region to region,country to country. But the return to normal means resumption of all social and economic activities around the World.

    But it is not visible and may take another year or so to make the World Covid free or transitioning to the case where mortality becomes zero and people find their confidence back to venture out without fear of getting infected or vice versa.

    There are two scenarios , one in which the entire world develops herd immunity. Slowly we are moving towards it but the current thinking is to reach the herd immunity by support of vaccine. Without vaccine also herd immunity can be developed but in that case the mortality may be very high so world leaders and epidemiologist took a middle path to reach herd immunity by controlled transmission through social and then to immunize risk population to large extent . This typically looks like that till we have vaccines close to 1/3rd population will develop natural immunity and 1/3 rd would get covid vaccine and other supported vaccine and this would be closer to herd immunity.

    However the journey to herd immunity would be different for different countries and for some countries it may even take longer and may spill to 2022.

    It all depends on the Vaccine production and its efficacy and proper vaccination and its management. A mammoth task never done before on that scale.

    For developing countries it would be a tough task and I guess the social end of Covid will be faster in these countries without  waiting for vaccine since mortality is low.

    And it is being seen in many countries where resumption of social activities and economic activities has already started and picking up due to several reasons and the most dominant one is economic.

    Therefor there is a chance that some countries will return to normalcy before the medical or epidemiological  end of Covid and it means the herd immunity will be faster by opening of several activities. India seems to be in this category where chances are that normal social and economic activities will reach to pre-covid level by December first week.

    In that case several countries may return to normalcy by April -June 2021 with lesser threat of covid transmission.

    But it all depends on confidence building of the people without which returning to normalcy by next June 2021 would be a wildest dream. People world wide are shaken and needs to be motivated and supported  to get back their confidence to make their life normal.


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