COVID-19 and India: Hits and Misses

As the time passes the misunderstanding and mismanagement of COVID in India is visible and in process  doing long term damage to all aspects of life.

The CORONA was officially reported by China in last week of December. However unofficially it was known since November 2019. We just watched and wasted crucial one month in denial that it will not come to India. However there was no restriction on movement from China and also special evacuation flight for Indians from Wuhan. Our deep understanding was that there is some sort of immunity for Indians due to virus load in India. It was true to some extent in terms of lower mortality but it was just wishful thinking and living in denial for not preparing for coming pandemic from the neighborhood. We completely fail to develop India specific plan to tackle it due to poor or absolutely no forecasting and prediction in the local context.

Things started moving a bit when it spread in Europe and USA and by end  January the first case was identified in India. However flight operation from affected countries were in full swing thinking India shield. Cases started going up slowly and the initial screening ,tracing and testing was started and it yielded excellent result. The screening,tracing, testing and isolation in early phases help considerably to contain its spread and also providing ample time for preparation in case of rapid spread. The government machinery were really executing it well . The cases in Europe and America went up very fast and then we started seriously thinking about ways to handle it. We already passed two months. Discussions in first week started  at top level in Delhi  for lock down and devising other containment strategies. During this period fortunately the cases were far and  few and tracing and isolation were proving the best way. 

It took another 3 weeks to try  one day India wide lock down , Janata Curfew. The entire nation supported it and just after it several states extended this lock down in areas identified as possible hot spots and that was the best strategy.

Trains and flights were running normal and people started coming back to native places more particularly the migrants working in big cities. In fact the migrant rush to come to their respective  place was started from second week of March itself. Commotion were reported from Mumbai and Delhi and other places due to large number of returnees. This was the best option since we lost the opportunity to inform migrants not to return after holi. But given the circumstances it was the best way forward suited for everybody by enforcing extended lock down in areas with reported corona positive cases . This was the  China model also where Wuhan was only locked but not the whole China.

But suddenly  after two days of Janata curfew nation wide lock down was announced  with complete stoppage of trains, flights, road transport  by providing less than 4 hours to the 130 crore people .There were no thoughts of migrants, students in hostels, patients in hospitals and movement for essential items.  This was an over reaction without having any plan and strategy to lock down entire country.There were no thoughts on the duration of lock down its severity on economy and plan for unlocking. No clear plan and if any it was known to few only. The nation went into a lock down with no knowledge when to come out. Everything was left to some supernatural powers.

By such decision the nation turns back to police and license raaj of 80s and the most serious damage was the COVID management of screening, tracing, testing and isolation. By country wide lock down it was near impossible to do tracking, tracing , testing and isolation. The health staffs and resources were few to do this . Other government human resources including police were diverted to ensure nation wide lock down. This is the point where India precisely lost the COVID narrative. This put entire COVID management  in a serious threat by stopping tracing but also keeping out  civil society organizations in supporting this mammoth task.

And if that was no less , then comes the huge migrant rush and that puts all previous efforts including lock down  to big failure. It was also a question of principle and equality , when the rich migrants were being ferried by flights from abroad the poor domestic migrants were left with no option to go back. The misery of poor migrants during this period reminds the historical divide of India -Pakistan during which thousands of Hindus left Pakistan to travel back to India on foot or any other available mode. It has shown that India in 2020, after 73 years of independence is more  divided and inequitable. Hundreds of migrants started on foot, on tricycle, bicycle with no money in their pockets with small children, women, toddlers without food and water. Hundreds of them lost their lives. It looks that this country is not theirs. This will haunt us for a very long time. This has again shown the class divide in India and more particularly the indifferent attitude of  lower middle and middle class who were safe in their households and enough to eat and sustain their family for an year or two without earning. Humanity takes a back seat in the eyes of government and its well to do citizens. Due to lock down civil society organizations were not able to provide any help .This situation was created due to our poor understanding and creation of unwanted  fear of CORONA. The way it was understood by the poor , illiterate migrants was that it is the end of life so let us go back to home by any means. Nobody took the responsibility of such huge failure and the biggest casualty was the nation wide lock down to slow down the spread of virus. It was in fact a failed  lock down.

Chest thumping in comparing with Europe and USA was the norm , no serious planning was made to contain it. However with all non-planned nation wide lock down the first phase of 21 days was very much justified to ramp up health facilities,testing, medicines, ventilators, raising awareness  etc but the subsequent lock down was just the bureaucracy . It should have been lifted after 21 days and then to allow states to go for local ward/ mohalla /clsuter wise lock down. 

The denial of December was playing in the minds of persons managing COVID at center level that we are insulated and slowly the cases start piling up. The fear created on the announcement of lock down seriously affects the peoples ability and make them extremely fearful. In fact the mortality rate of COVID is less than SARS , SWINE , Nipah virus etc then why such a frenzy was created! Police raj was in full force , all domestic flights and train got cancelled. People with other life threatening diseases were left to die at home. It was a uncalled misery for the country due to poor planning. When things started getting out of hand then center started consulting state CMs but it was not in the beginning.  WHO started praising India due to obvious reason of pulling of the organization by USA. ICMR  become a laughing stock with their daily changing briefs on COVID and its containment strategy. The press briefs by govt were just playing the numbers and comparison with US and  Europe  and the media copying it without applying any mind to it.It was a show of changing goals day by day , first comparing with US and Europe and when cases piling up then comparison on numbers when it further increase then % of population , cases per million , mortality per million etc it was just some arguments to support the brief. It reminded me of the book titled 'The Argumentative Indians' by Nobel laureate Amartya Sen.

We lost the bus for a robust COVID management and with prolonged lock down without any strategy for unlocking ,the economy started bleeding but at last the center decided to unlock it gradually from  June but damage already done. Misinformation by fly by night hundreds of COVID expert also contributed in messing up.

 During this period what needs to be done is to  contain its spread by more awareness and going back to the basic of screening,tracing, testing, isolation and treatment . Now many states are going for local lock downs further stressing the supply chain and production of essentials.

The containment strategy needs to be revised till the vaccine or approved medicine is available:

1. Ramp up testing to cover at least 10 % of population by end September and this can be achieved only if testing is done free of cost by engaging civil society organization.

2. Allow large numbers of private testing labs to test those who can afford.

3. Make available generic medicines details  for people without any other serious ailments

4. Awareness campaign for using masks in public places and other hygiene practices.

5. Campaign to re inform the nation about living with it with all necessary precautions and likely less severity of  COVID deaths and its associated ailments.

6. Allow all private hospitals to reserve and treat  25 % bed for serious covid patients

7. Allow regular movements of goods and people with all means.

8. Mapping of vulnerable districts in vulnerable states with poor watsan, poor health facilities and poor nutrition with focused support to the identified communities.

9. Long term planning for restoring damages made to economy , living and health being of citizens.

10. Those who have space should use their home for isolation , quarantine and recovery.

11. Procurement plan for medicines and vaccines to stop black marketing when available. SOP should be in place before the vaccine is available for its distribution.

12.Stop using this pandemic cover for petty political gain 

13. Motivate people to voluntary disclose its symptoms and come forward for testing.

Use this as an opportunity to strengthen health system in the country.